Uncertain times

C&I Issue 11, 2016

Welcome to this celebratory supplement from C&I! It celebrates the contributions made in terms of innovation in chemical research and manufacturing safety by ICI on the occasion of the 90th anniversary of its formation. Also included here are contributions from ICI’s successor companies including AstraZeneca and AkzoNobel, together with a look at the state of innovation and some of the individuals involved in 2016.

This year has been extremely unusual, with a UK vote to leave the EU, and a subsequent change in the UK government, as well as the election of a new US president – all events that have thrown the perceived certainties in the chemical sector into some confusion, especially the life science sector.

In terms of business, will the UK find it easy to conclude free trade talks after so-called Brexit, and indeed will the UK still be able to operate in Europe’s single market? And what will this mean for the chemicals sector? The initial signs from the US seem to indicate that after the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, then the US-EU Transatlantic Trade Partnership  agreement may follow it into oblivion, possibly along with North American Free Trade Agreement.

But the uncertain prospects for tariff-free trading are just one aspect of this new reality; there are many potential impacts on innovation.

Will the signs that UK researchers are being shut out the EU’s Horizon programmes begin to disappear, for examnple? Or will those researchers find themselves in something of a wilderness and forced to seek funding elsewhere? And will the UK government’s research funding make up the difference?

What is certain is that the world seems to be standing at a threshold – with a very uncertain future. According to the consultancy McKinsey, for the first time since 2014, executives in emerging markets are more optimistic about their home countries’ prospects than their colleagues in developed markets, with Latin America being a particularly bright spot. Interestingly, McKinsey also notes that, regarding the unexpected Brexit decision, the same executives believe that global conditions stayed steady over the run up to the vote and have remained so after the vote. It remains to be seen what will be the impact of the US election result.

For the UK, the life science sector has expressed a number of concerns about the future in a report prepared by the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI).

Predictably, the report calls for long-term predictable funding for scientific research, open and free trading conditions for goods and capital and common regulatory frameworks, together with access to the best talent across the international market.

According to the report, The changing UK drug discovery landscape, the UK biopharmaceutical sector remains strong, making the UK’s largest R&D investment – around £4bn in 2013 – and employing over 70,000 people. Despite this strength, however, a number of major R&D sites have been closed, leading to a suggestion that UK drug discovery activity has fallen considerably.

Indeed, the report shows that almost all large biopharma companies have significantly decreased their employment in in-house discovery in the UK, although many small and particularly midsized companies have increased discovery employment over the past decade. While many large companies have increased overall investment in UK drug discovery, over 60% have increased outsourcing and collaborative working.

This is reflected in a trend towards open innovation, which is now central to drug discovery approaches in the UK. There has also been an increase in specialist staffing, investment and commissioning of contract research organisations (CROs) and academic drug discovery centres.

The latter are seen as particularly important, in areas where the industry is less active, including in rare and neglected diseases. Research charities are also seen as an increasingly active group, with no large companies reporting a decrease in collaboration. Interestingly, CROs, in addition to growing their domestically funded activities are also seeing increases in the work that is coming to them from outside the UK, notably from the US and EU, with business from both the UK and elsewhere tending to come from smaller companies and also academia. 

Certainly innovative activity in the UK life science sector is still thriving, although collaborations, which in terms of one-to-one relationships, remain the most common model, continue to evolve in to more complex, multiparty, open partnerships.